Introduction
We make many decisions in our everyday activity, and sometimes we are more or less logical about them. The decision that we make are based on beliefs concerning the possibility of uncertain events such as the outcome of an election.
However what determines these beliefs? How do we measure the probability of an uncertain event? This essay will show that we rely on certain heuristic principle in order to guide us make the best decision. In general these heuristics can be useful, but can lead to severe and systematic errors.
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